The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the Twenty-first Century's Greatest Dilemma

The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the Twenty-first Century’s Greatest Dilemma, by Mustafa Suleyman, explores the intersection between technology and society, offering insights into the transformative potential and pitfalls of the rapidly advancing technological landscape. In this 2023 work, Suleyman, the co-founder of artificial intelligence company DeepMind, delivers a thought-provoking analysis of how the newest wave of emerging technologies—led by artificial intelligence and synthetic biology and compounded by quantum computing, clean energy, and robotics—will reshape the fabric of human existence. Drawing on his first-hand knowledge of present-day technological innovations and on research into the history of technology, Suleyman delves into the complexities of containment strategies and the ethical implications of unchecked technological progress. The Coming Wave offers readers a nuanced understanding of the challenges and opportunities presented by the impending technological revolution, urging them to confront pressing questions about the future of humanity in an increasingly interconnected world.

This guide references the 2023 eBook edition published by Crown.

Summary

Suleyman proposes that humanity is shaped by waves: waves of commerce, of religion, of technology. The coming wave of technology, driven primarily by advances in AI and synthetic biology, will impact the world in unprecedented ways. Suleyman shares insights from his experience co-founding the AI company DeepMind: Even though he works at the cutting edge of AI, he’s been shocked by AI’s recent advancements. He expresses concern about the risks posed by these new technologies—including their ability to enable cyberattacks, engineered pandemics, and automated warfare—while warning against the pitfalls of attempting to ban them or control them through authoritarian means. He reflects on the challenges of navigating what he calls the “narrow path” between catastrophe and invasive control: Uncontained, these technologies will wreak havoc on humanity, but containment mechanisms that require authoritarian surveillance would be similarly catastrophic. Suleyman also highlights the phenomenon of pessimism aversion—a natural psychological response that makes people resistant to facing technology’s unintended consequences—and argues that it is imperative to confront technology’s potential failures and dangers. His narrative underscores the urgency of addressing the ethical, societal, and existential implications of the coming wave while acknowledging the daunting task of containment.

In Chapters 2 and 3, Suleyman explores the historical patterns of technology proliferation and the challenges of containment. He illustrates how waves of technology, driven by demand and cost reduction, have historically spread rapidly once a general-purpose technology gains traction. Using examples like the invention of cars and computers, Suleyman demonstrates the exponential growth and diffusion of technology throughout human history. However, he also highlights the potential negative consequences of technological advancement. He introduces the concept of containment as the ability to control, limit, and possibly shut down technologies. Containing the coming wave of technologies—while harnessing its benefits—will be necessary for the survival and prosperity of humanity, Suleyman argues, but historically, containing technologies has been exceedingly difficult. He reflects on past attempts at containment: In nearly every historical case, containment has failed. The only partial success, he notes, has been the containment of nuclear weapons. However, nuclear containment is marked by numerous accidents and near-misses that underscore the just how hard full containment truly is. Suleyman warns that as AI and biotechnology advance, the need for effective containment becomes increasingly urgent.

In Chapters 4 to 6, Suleyman delves into the rapid advancements in artificial intelligence and synthetic biology, which are at the forefront of the emerging technological revolution. He recounts the transformative achievements of his company DeepMind, particularly in developing AI algorithms like DQN and AlphaGo, highlighting how these breakthroughs have propelled the field forward. Suleyman discusses the rapid emergence of powerful Large Language Models (LLMs) like ChatGPT. He also explores the exponential progress in synthetic biology, catalyzed by innovations such as CRISPR gene editing, leading to groundbreaking applications in medicine, agriculture, and manufacturing. Suleyman then discusses the interconnectedness of AI and synthetic biology, envisioning a future where these technologies converge to drive unprecedented advancements. Beyond AI and biology, he explores the broader spectrum of the impending wave, encompassing robotics, quantum computing, and clean energy, each poised to reshape society in profound ways. Suleyman underscores the accelerating pace of technological convergence and the potential for unforeseen breakthroughs as these disparate fields intersect, heralding a new era of innovation and transformation.

In chapters 7 and 8 of The Coming Wave, Suleyman explores the distinctive characteristics and underlying incentives driving the impending technological revolution. He highlights four key features of this wave: asymmetric impact, hyper-evolution, omni-use, and autonomy. The coming wave of technology is unprecedented because these technologies give massive power to individuals, evolve at an extremely rapid pace, can be used across a huge range of contexts, and are becoming increasingly autonomous. Moreover, Suleyman identifies the entrenched incentives propelling this wave, including national pride, the technological arms race, the open culture of research, profit motives, global challenges, and ego. All these incentives drive the coming wave, resulting in unstoppable momentum toward technological advancement, with nation-states emerging as the primary agents capable of containing its impact.

In chapters 9-12, Suleyman delves into the fragility of nation-states amidst the impending technological revolution. He emphasizes that trust in governments has been eroded due to rising inequality, and he warns that the coming wave will further destabilize liberal, democratic governments across the world. Suleyman argues that technology is a political force, capable of both reinforcing existing power structures and fueling fragmentation. He elucidates how advances in AI, biotechnology, and automation pose existential threats to state functions, including national security, public safety, and economic stability. The coming wave, he argues, will enable extreme centralization of corporate and state power, enriching major tech companies while allowing authoritarian governments to become even more oppressive. Simultaneously, these technologies will equip secessionists and ideological factions to splinter off into autonomous, state-like entities. Ultimately, Suleyman presents a stark dilemma for the twenty-first century: navigating a path between catastrophe, dystopia, and stagnation. Containing the coming wave may seem impossible, Suleyman acknowledges, but for the sake of humanity, it must be done.

In the final chapters of The Coming Wave, Suleyman outlines strategies for containing the impending wave of technology. He warns that regulation alone is not enough to achieve containment. He advocates for a coherent and united approach across governments and sectors, outlining ten interdependent strategies for containment, including implementing technical safety measures, instituting audits, leveraging choke points, and aligning incentives of tech companies with the goals of containment. Suleyman stresses the importance of international cooperation, public input, and a culture of sharing and learning from failures. Ultimately, he argues that technology should serve human needs and aspirations. Containment seems impossible, he says, but the benefits of the coming wave are worth fighting for.